exhibition 4
Strategies of an Alternative Revolution
Background:
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In 1986, the political situation in South Africa seemed hopeless, with an external border war and internal civil war. Elisabeth Dostal, as a researcher within the IFR (i.e. Institute for Futures Research of the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa) was tasked to conduct a study on political scenarios for the future of South Africa using dialectics as the scenario logic.
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Two of the scenarios (entitled “White Backlash” and “Red Revolutionary” scenario) suggested a likely escalation of violence on all sides with an increasingly bloody outcome of the conflict. The third scenario, entitled “Transcending the Dialectics of Power” suggested a peaceful transition from Apartheid to democracy. It was based on identifying current initiatives by different (even opposing) groups that worked towards a shared and peaceful democratic political future, in spite of the ongoing conflict. (Surprisingly, there were many such initiatives!)
Based on this scenario, members of the IFR developed a set of strategies which we entitled an Alternative Revolution for South Africa. This scenario was initially presented at an IFR conference for Associates (i.e. representatives of about 30 of South Africa’s largest corporations). It subsequently was discussed with various cultural, economic and political organisations associated a with both, the Apartheid regime and various opposition groups.
Martine Dodds suggested that she would like to make illustrations for this presentation (which she did over the weekend before the IFR conference). Thanks to her delightful illustrations, the presentation was favourably received by the Associates and also in later presentations (even by potentially hostile opposition audiences). Martine’s creative pictures and insightful analogies and metaphors transformed the presentation from a talk being illustrated by pictures to a talk explaining the illustrations. We believe that the strategies inspired many leaders to rethink the future of South Africa and thereby contributed to its peaceful transformation in 1994.
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About Martine Dodds
Martine Dodds (MPhil), worked for the IFR on projects concerned with societal development, based on systems thinking. She made major scientific contributions in this area of research. She spent some time working with the famous systems thinkers Ackoff and Gharajedaghi at INTERACT (in Philadelphia, USA). She joined the Biomatrix Research Group in some projects.
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As a hobby, Martine expressed her philosophy in the form of cartoons, much loved by her colleagues. The cartoons, as well as her pictures and metaphors presented below charmed and inspired various audiences, changed their thinking about the future of South Africa and spread hope during dark times. Shortly before her death, Martine expressed the wish to be remembered for her contribution to an “Alternative Revolution for South Africa”. We hereby want to honour her wish.
Thank you Martine! Your contribution continues. ALUTA CONTINUA!
TRANSCENDING THE DIALECTICS OF POWER
From the 1950's until 1994, South Africa was engaged in a
dialectic power struggle between the oppressive and violent
Apartheid regime (i.e. the “VOLK”)
and an equally violent (communist backed) revolutionary
movement (i.e. the “PEOPLE”).
Concerned about the violence on both sides and a future
escalation, we searched for a PEACEFUL way of transcending
this struggle and
formulated the strategies for an ALTERNATIVE REVOLUTION,
1. REDUCING TENSION
Various strategies were proposed
to reduce tensions in all areas of life,
both in general and in specific situations,
as they arose.
NOTE: In the psychological and change management literature these are typically referred to as de-escalation
strategies.
2. REFOCUSSING
Based on research, the members of the IFR concluded that the handing over of power from one regime driven by an exclusive ideology to another regime, also driven by an exclusive and conflicting ideology, will merely perpetuate the violent dialectic power struggle.
They proposed a strategy of refocusing instead, involving prolonged negotiations between the conflicting political parties.
The purpose of the negotiations is the exploration of a shared future in an issue specific (instead of ideology- driven) manner, in order to align the worldviews of the opposing parties. Thereby a synthesis for a peaceful and inclusive future can arise. The following strategies explain in more detail what this involves.
3. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING: Threats & Opportunties
Environmental scanning is a powerful technique for
refocusing conflicting parties. It reveals the challenges that any government (as well as organisation and person) is likely to be confronted with, regarding the future.
It also allows the participants from opposing camps
to highlight problems from their perspective.
The IFR specialises in environmental scanning
and has a vast databank of cultural, economic, political, technological and ecological trends of South Africa and an understanding of their inherent threats and opportunities for the future of the country.
Through facilitating environmental scanning sessions
with delegates from public and private sector, as well as opposition organisations, the IFR learned that environmental scanning opens the mind of the participants and makes them more willing to embrace change.
4. INCREMENTAL CHANGE
The Threat
Many trends identified by the IFR were “boiling frogs”,
which are complex problems or “messes”
(like poverty, unemployment, crime, infrastructure problems, pandemics, school drop-outs, pollution and desertification).
An analysis of such problems reveals
that they get worse over time, are multi-dimensional,
shape-shift (i.e. depending on who looks at them),
co-produce each other and change continuously.
It also becomes clear that they cannot be solved,
because they emerge from the pursuit of diverse interests by different interest parties.
The IFR conducted many environmental scanning sessions with participants subscribing to different ideologies.
It was observed that in identifying the co-factors
(or co-causes) of a problem, each ideology made some unique contributions, thereby creating an understanding
that the whole problem is an emergence from the interaction of diverse problem co-factors and transcends ideological differences. Often, this led to a rethinking of the challenges of the futureon both sides of the ideological divide.
5. VISIONARY FOCUS
Without vision, the people perish
As Albert Einstein observed: “Problems cannot be solved with the thinking that gave rise to them”. Complex problems cannot be solved, but need to be dissolved in the course of creating an ideal future, analogous to dissolving disease by creating health.
In praxis, this involves systemic brainstorming, namel
y formulating an ideal for each problem and problem co-factor that should replace it (such as health replacing disease) and formulating at least three strategies with which to co-produce the ideal future state (such as pursuing healthy nutrition, supplementation, exercise and stress management).
By extending the environmental scanning sessions into an exploration of a more ideal future, it was found that although participants subscribed to different ideologies, they nevertheless desired similar (if not the same) ideals (as outcomes for the future). At the same time, the proposed strategies for achieving a more ideal future often differed according to ideology. However, far from causing conflict, it became obvious that those different strategies are complementary and actually necessary to co-produce the desired ideal outcome.
6. ACTION PROGRAMME
Co-productivity & Focus
Once there is alignment around a shared vision,
each of the original problem co-producing parties
Plans its unique contribution to work towards this desired shared future. This implies answering the question “What must be my contribution to bring about the shared vision?”
The desired collective future is achieved (or approximated), if each part (i.e. sub-system) begins to implement its unique contribution to the design of the whole. For example, in transforming an education system, each sub-system (e.g. school, university, department of education) and their members (e.g. teachers, parents, pupils, administrators) must make their unique function-specific contribution. The ideal design is co-produced by the interaction of all parts of the system, inspired by a shared overarching vision.
NOTE: If one sub-system acts against the vision, the other sub-systems will experience problems and the vision will not be attainable
7. MADONNA ON THE MOUNTAIN
This story was told by Dana Meadows
(of Club of Rome fame),during her visit to the IFR
(in contribution to a peaceful transformation of SA).
The story illustrates that change must be inspired by
and aligned with the ETHOS (i.e. values and beliefs)
of the people associated with the change.
THE STORY:
Sometime and somewhere in South America, the
World Bank wanted to finance an irrigation scheme.
However, the community preferred to build a large concrete Madonna on the Mountain before tackling any other building project. The World Bank refused and the project stalled. Eventually, the bank relented and financed the concrete for the Madonna. After completing their Madonna on the Mountain (and the customary celebrations), the people built their irrigation scheme around their Madonna for less than the originally allocated money (including the concrete for the Madonna).
8. INCREMENTAL CHANGE:
The Opportunity
Once upon a time, there was a visionary man who
planted acorns wherever he went.
The acorns grew into trees, then into a forest, which attracted fungi, plants, birds and other animals. The micro-climate changed with more rainfall and the area became a thriving eco-system.
After some time it even supported a profitable forest industry for the people. The story illustrates that if consistent actions (however small) are taken, provided that they are inspired by a larger vision and aligned with generic organising principles of nature and social systems,
their result can be unexpectedly huge and
synergistic.
9. COMMUNICATION:
Dialogue, Indaba
Negotiation as INDABA (i.e. sitting and smoking together and listening to each other’s stories and different points of view) is a familiar African concept.
The IFR promoted Design Indabas to create win / win and synergistic ideas for a shared, peaceful and prosperous future for all South Africans. To emphasise the importance of personal interaction during negotiations, the “Dancing Congress” (i.e. the Viennese Congress which established a lasting peace in Europe after the ravages of the Napoleonic
wars) was used as an analogy, whereby the braai (i.e. South African barbecue) replaced the Austrian balls.
We also coined and promoted the slogan that “South Africa does not need a National Party, but a national party”. (NOTE: The National Party was the ruling Apartheid party). During the negotiations of South Africa’s political transition, there was indeed great emphasis on personal interaction between the former “enemies” involving braais, fishing trips and game drives. As much of this occurred in the wilderness, the ancient African continent contributed to the healing.
10. COMMUNICATING ACTION​
By communicating what is designed, planned and
implemented and what outcomes are achieved,
others are inspired to follow suit and participate in
doing “their thing” for a shared ideal future
Because of the interaction of systems, a cross-fertilisation of ideas occurs and the changes in one area makes changes in other areas possible.
Thereby an avalanche of constructive actions is triggered. Some of the NGOs and media, as well as churches and conferences played an important role in this.
11. COMPETITIVE STRATEGY:
Win /loose​
Competition can be useful
in promoting efficiency
in the economy,
or to test various models and strategies
(e.g. piloting alternatives),
in order to find out which works best.
May the best win!
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12. COMPETITIVE STRATEGY:
Loose /loose​
However,
if competitive thinking is the dominant worldview (as represented by reductionist thinking), the win / lose approach produces lose / lose.
It gives rise to the complex problems which are encountered worldwide and prevents a peaceful co-existence in which the interests of all parties are considered and (as much as possible) met.
Therefore, the IFR promoted systems thinking
(or w/holistic thinking) and also invited international systems thinkers to interact with policy and decision-makers of the public and private sector and also engage with opposition leaders.​
13. COOPERATIVE STRATEGY:
Win /win​
A vicious win / lose cycle (of I hit you, you hit me)
can be transformed into a virtuous win / win cycle
(e.g. I support you, you support me back, etc.) by “turning the other cheek” and “forgiving seventy times seven” as suggested by Jesus.
South Africa demonstrated such a turn-around through its Truth and Reconciliation Commission. It enabled all its citizens to come to terms with their past on a morally accepted basis and laid the foundation for reconciliation and a peaceful shared future.
It also promoted healing in all parts of society. Win / win is also generated through cooperative strategy derived from a shared ideal design (or vision) of the future.
As each part of a system works towards the shared ideal within their sphere of influence and with their available resources, they collectively bring about
a more desirable future for all.
14. LEADERSHIP​
Rethinking an existing situation and
being motivated to do things differently,
requires visionary leadership.
The transformation
of each system of society
needs its own function-relevant leaders.
From a w/holistic perspective,
the leader works to promote the interests
of the part s/he represents,
while at the same time
also considering
the interests of the other parts
and advancing the interest of the whole
in a balanced manner.
15. THE CRITICAL NUMBER​
A system can get transformed, if a critical number of its members work towards its change, analogous to the yeast rising the dough.
In changing the physical reality of a system, every person’s vote, voice and action within their sphere of influence counts, especially if organised collectively (e.g. through participating in Design Indabas and changing their current strategies as inspired by the shared ideal design), analogous to the unique puzzle stone
that completes the picture of the whole.
Thereby their apparent “little” actions become hugely significant and indispensable. A critical number is also required to change conceptual reality (i.e. the in-formation field of the collective un/conscious).
According to consciousness research, the physical reality of a system can also be changed if a critical number of its members meditates and prays. (This is referred to as the Maharishi Effect.)
16. THE MIRACLE OF TRANSFORMATION​
Once a critical number is achieved, a system seems to transform almost miraculously and far beyond expectation,
analogous to the fish and bread of the few feeding the many.
The peaceful transformation of South Africa is such a “miracle”. Many individuals and organisations from all sectors of society and from within different ideological persuasions, worked very hard and for a long time to influence physical reality through their various actions
Others participated in prayer through churches and meditation through “new age” groups, thereby positively influencing the conceptual reality of the country, which – in turn – in-formed (i.e. put form into) society in physical reality.
Judging by South Africa’s peaceful transition, a critical number must have been reached,
(as “by their fruit you shall recognise them”).
References​
ILLUSTRATIONS
Dodds, M. 1988. Illustrations on Transcending the Dialectics of Power: An Alternative Revolution for South Africa. Stellenbosch: Institute for Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch.
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TEXT
Dostal, E. 1988. Transcending the Dialectics of Power - An
Alternative Revolution for South Africa. Paper delivered at the
Fourth International Conference on Systems Research,
Informatics and Cybernetics in Baden-Baden, Germany
Dostal, E. 1987. Perspectives on the political future of South
Africa. Research report for Stratcon. Stellenbosch: Institute for
Futures Research, University of Stellenbosch.
Dostal, E. 1986. Socio-political Monitor: Revolutionary Strategy
in South Africa. Stellenbosch: Institute for Futures Research,
University of Stellenbosch.